New analysis finds land and ocean sinks are weakening and carbon prices and coverage fall short of what is needed to protect them, leaving net zero strategies built on unverified foundations

LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, Sept. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- INSIGHT FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Wood Mackenzie | www.woodmac.com

The natural systems that absorb nearly half of all CO2 produced by human activities are under increasing stress. The policies and financial frameworks designed to protect them are not keeping pace. Those are the central findings of Nature capital: the unpriced carbon, a Wood Mackenzie report published in August 2026.

In 2025, oceans accounted for approximately 12 GtCO2 of annual absorption; forests contributed a further 6 GtCO2. Against gross global carbon dioxide emissions of 48 GtCO2 per year, spanning energy, agriculture, waste and land use and forestry sector, those sinks reduced net emissions to approximately 30 GtCO2, absorbing around 40% of annual human CO2 emissions. Net CO2 emissions due to human activities have risen more than 80% since 1990.

Engineered removals, including direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), contributed only 0.08 GtCO2 in 2025, 200,000 times less than annual CO2 uptake from oceans. The vast majority of CO2 removal has historically depended on natural systems.

Sinks are the unpriced foundation of climate targets

Since 1990, global forest area has declined by 1.5 million km2, with deforestation contributing 5 to 6 GtCO2 annually. The land-use sector has had near-neutral net emissions since 2024, losing its role as a net sink. In Wood Mackenzie’s base case, forest area continues to contract until 2030, with gradual recovery thereafter. Rising temperatures create a self-reinforcing feedback loop: greater warming results in more fires, which further reduces absorption. Protecting and restoring forests could deliver 3 to 6 GtCO2 of mitigation annually.

Five major Earth system tipping points carry a combined greenhouse gas release potential exceeding 750 GtCO2: permafrost thaw, Amazon dieback, boreal forest fires, coral reef die-off, and Atlantic Ocean circulation disruption. Some processes are already unfolding. Canada's 2023 boreal fires alone released 3 GtCO2, converting boreal forest from carbon sink to emission source. Coral reef die-off would disrupt fisheries that sustain over a billion people globally.

Why the pace of renewables deployment cannot close the gap alone

Residual energy-sector emissions do not disappear even under the most ambitious climate scenario. Approximately 11 GtCO₂ of emissions remain under the net zero scenario, where global net emissions reach zero by 2050, rising to around 14 GtCO₂ under the country pledges scenario, where net emissions reach zero by 2060. Financing gaps in the land-use sector means the natural sink capacity needed to absorb those residual emissions, alongside engineered carbon removals, remains underdeveloped.

Carbon prices in most compliance markets range from US$5 to US$90 per tCO2, levels that do not reflect the true cost of sink degradation. Current policy frameworks treat natural sinks as free infrastructure while pricing only emissions, a structural blind spot in climate policy. Without stronger carbon pricing, scaled-up finance for nature, and urgent policy action, absorptive capacity will continue to weaken. The 2026 to 2035 window is decisive: scenario analysis shows sink trajectories diverge sharply based on action taken now.

Key findings:

 

• Gross global CO2 emissions from human activities, across energy, agriculture, waste and land-use and forestry sectors, stand at 48 GtCO2 per year. Natural sinks absorb roughly 18 GtCO2 of that annually, around 40% of annual human CO2 emissions, reducing net emissions to approximately 30 GtCO2 in 2025.
• Engineered removals, including direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), contributed only 0.08 GtCO2 in 2025. CO2 uptake from oceans across the same period absorbed more than 200,000 times this amount.
• Five major Earth system tipping points carry a combined greenhouse gas release potential exceeding 750 GtCO2. Some processes are already unfolding.
• Even under the net zero scenario, approximately 11 GtCO2 of residual annual energy-sector emissions remain in 2050. Under the country pledges scenario, that figure rises to around 14 GtCO2 by 2060.
• Carbon prices in most compliance markets range from US$5 to US$90 per tCO2, levels the report finds insufficient to reflect the cost of sink degradation or incentivise the investment needed to protect natural systems.

 

"Unlike the energy transition, which can accelerate in later years, ecosystem collapse is permanent on human timescales. Each decade of inaction removes future optionality," said Roshna Nazar, Senior Analyst, Energy Transition Scenarios and Technologies, Wood Mackenzie. "The due diligence gap is straightforward: any net zero strategy that assumes stable natural absorption without assessing sink health is building on unverified foundations. Early movers in verified nature-based solutions and sink-linked carbon instruments will capture value as demand scales and regulation tightens".

Background

Nature capital: the unpriced carbon was published by Wood Mackenzie's Lens Energy Transition Scenarios research in August 2026, modelling the full CO2 balance under four scenarios through 2060: base case, country pledges, net zero, and delayed transition.

Natural sinks are not adequately valued in most energy or climate models. As the process of addressing this unfolds, carbon prices, offset methodologies, and national climate plans face material revision. Regions with weak enforcement today are likely to face abrupt policy tightening as sink losses become visible, creating sudden compliance burdens for exposed assets. The full report is available at www.woodmac.com.

 

-ENDS-

For further information please contact Wood Mackenzie’s media relations team:

Chris Boba
+44 7408 841129
Chris.Boba@woodmac.com 

Mark Thomton
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Mark.thomton@woodmac.com

Hla Myat Mon
+65 8533 8860  
hla.myatmon@woodmac.com 

Angelica Juarez
angelica.juarez@woodmac.com

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Contact:
Chris Boba
Wood Mackenzie
+44 7408 841129
chris.boba@woodmac.com